Dear Human Readers,
Happy Holidays! While we were enjoying the days off, our algorithms never stopped monitoring what the Chinese government is up to. Here’s the latest from the PCI projects.
PCI-China Updates
The 2019 Q4 update on the PCI-China was released just after the new year. While the number shows a slight uptick from the previous quarter, the big picture (shown below) remains the same: Twice in the last two years, China has signaled a turn to more hard-line policies both domestically and internationally.
When the Chinese delegation comes to Washington next week, eyes will be on the signing of the phase-one deal, in which China is expected to promise intellectual property protection. But China watchers would be wise to curb their enthusiasm. Past experience suggests that, unless we see a meaningful change in China’s state propaganda, such a promise will likely remain empty.
Figure: PCI-China, 1951 Q1 to 2019 Q4
Note: The PCI-China predicts if and when the Chinese government will change its policy priorities. A spike in the indicator signals a policy change, while a vertical bar marks the occurrence of a policy change labeled by the event.
PCI-Crackdown Updates
It's been seven months since the Hong Kong protests broke out last June. We developed the PCI-Crackdown (shown below) to gauge how likely the protests will suffer a Tiananmen-like crackdown by Beijing. While the indicator has at times reached as high as May 26, 1989, the tension is now largely over.
When China replaced its top envoy to Hong Kong last week, the move was widely seen as a turn to tougher measures. What our indicator shows is the opposite: Not only has the indicator trended down, but it has essentially gone silent since the US and China reached the phase-one deal. While protests are still ongoing in Hong Kong, the danger of a Beijing crackdown on them is no longer there.
Figure 2: PCI-Crackdown for Hong Kong protests, Jun 6, 2019 to Jan 7, 2020
Note: The PCI-Crackdown tries to learn the buildup of China’s negative propaganda against Tiananmen protesters and then cast Hong Kong protests-related articles on the Tiananmen timeline, giving an estimate of how close in time Hong Kong is to when tanks rolled over Beijing.
PCI Resources
The open-source PCI projects are meant to crack a window to otherwise opaque political systems, so everyone can look inside—for free. On the PCI website, you can find not only the indices but also our research papers, commentaries, data, and source code, among other things. Don’t hesitate to reach out with questions.
Edited by Weifeng Zhong and Julian TszKin Chan
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