Dear Human Readers,
We’re growing to like the idea of sending you machine learning stuff before you head off for a human weekend. So here it goes.
PCI-China Updates
As you may have seen on the PCI website, we released the Q3 update on the PCI-China earlier this month. Once again, as the chart below shows, the two recent spikes in Q1 2018 and Q1 2019, respectively, indicate China’s increased aggression. We therefore maintain our earlier assessment that China is becoming more hard-line in both domestic and foreign policies.
Much attention these days is paid to the phase-one trade deal between the US and China, largely centered on agricultural purchases. Perhaps that’s all there will be, as China is certainly not showing any sign of folding on the so-called structural issues.
Figure: PCI-China, 1951 Q1 to 2019 Q3
Note: The PCI-China predicts if and when the Chinese government will change its policy priorities. A spike in the indicator signals a policy change, while a vertical bar marks the occurrence of a policy change labeled by the event.
PCI-Crackdown Updates
Much has transpired since we last wrote about the PCI-Crackdown for the Hong Kong protests. The chart below shows the latest. While the prospect of a phase-one trade deal has helped curb the tension, Beijing’s sentiment quickly bounced back after the House passed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act last month. The indicator even reached the highest recorded level over the past few days when the confrontation between the protesters and the police brought unprecedented violence. We will continue to monitor and update the indicator for as long as the Hong Kong protests last. So check back soon.
Figure: PPCI-Crackdown for 2019 Hong Kong portests, Jun 6 to Nov 15
Note: The PCI-Crackdown tries to learn the buildup of China’s negative propaganda against Tiananmen protesters and then cast Hong Kong protests-related articles on the Tiananmen timeline, giving an estimate of how close in time Hong Kong is to when tanks rolled over Beijing.
Other Updates
Last month, Weifeng Zhong presented the two PCI projects at the O’Reilly’s Artificial Intelligence Conference in London. Besides introducing the tools, Zhong also had an interesting discussion with the audience about how the method can be used in a variety of other contexts.
We are also excited to announce that the PCI-China has joined the Policy Simulation Library (PSL)! The PSL is a community of open-source models that comply with a set of criteria designed to ensure reproducibility and facilitate collaboration. So come check out our source code!
Edited by Weifeng Zhong and Julian TszKin Chan
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