The talk about more talks
Originally Posted on June 27, 2019
Three-pointer:
What (not) to expect from the Trump-Xi meeting;
Whither federal engagement in AI standards; and
Counting crowds in the Hong Kong protest.
Dear Human Readers,
It’s been almost a year since the US-China trade war started. If that feels long, know that more is yet to come.
PCI Updates
All eyes will be on Presidents Trump and Xi when they meet at the G20 summit on Saturday. While the meeting will provide important clues as to where the trade war is headed, early signs offered by the Policy Change Index (PCI) project are clear: What comes out of their talk may well be — you got it — just more talks and more uncertainties.
Although the second quarter of the year isn’t entirely behind us, we are able to provide a preview of the Q2 number through the PCI chart below.
The preliminary update reinforces our earlier assessment of the 2019 Q1 spike that the Chinese government has been taking an increasingly hard-line approach in both domestic issues and foreign affairs. Trade war watchers would be wise to not expect a speedy deal through a Chinese back-down on structural issues. For more details, stay tuned for our formal Q2 release next month!
Community News
A Request for Information about Federal Engagement in AI Standards was issued by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) last month. This is part of the assignment given to NIST by President Trump’s February executive order on maintaining US leadership in AI.
While NIST may be eager to engage, Julian TszKin Chan, Matthew Jensen, and Weifeng Zhong submitted a comment urging the federal government to stay in the back seat for AI standard setting. They argue that the private sector is doing just fine in setting standards and that an active government involvement will, more likely than not, rock the boat.
Many other comments echo this view. Submitted by tech companies, industry groups, and academics — such as Google, Microsoft, the American Bar Association, and the Mortgage Bankers Association — these comments praise the progress on standard setting in the marketplace and caution against the barriers to innovation too much government engagement could bring.
What We're Watching
Hong Kong’s protest this month, against an extradition bill that would send suspects in Hong Kong to mainland China, caught the world’s attention. But, how many people took to the streets? That depends on who’s counting — the organizers estimated almost two million people, while the police about 338,000.
Recent advances in deep learning have given researchers the ability to estimate large crowds more accurately. Johns Hopkins computer scientists Vishwanath Sindagi and Vishal Patel conducted an excellent survey of this new literature. Nevertheless, crowd counting remains a hard problem. In the case of the Hong Kong protest, Reuters reported the daunting challenge to count due to complicated roads, mercurial flows, and, above all, contentious politics.
We may not know how many took to the streets in Hong Kong. But then again, with so many AI talents in the country, the Chinese government in Beijing probably knows — and that’s probably what matters the most.
Edited by Weifeng Zhong and Julian TszKin Chan
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